Thoughts on an off week

We have completed about three-quarters of the Premier League season (or 73.68% of it to be exact), and I think we can all agree to be pleasantly surprised with how this Liverpool team has fared.  It’s one thing to see the boys playing some beautiful football on the pitch.  And they are.  But it’s another thing to see the results translated on the table.  Back in August I’m quite certain everyone would’ve signed up for 2^nd place with ten matches remaining.  Now we go into this off weekend thankful that all of our key players stayed healthy during the mid-week international break.  As I looked at the fixture list for this week, the big game will be at 12:30 PM for a London derby when Chelsea host Spurs.  It got me wondering… exactly who do I want to win that game???

I always shake my head when people start talking about desired results in November and December.  There’s more than an entire half of a season of football left to be played, so you just don’t know what teams will be competing with you in the end.  In general, it’s best to hope for a draw.  But with ten matches remaining on the schedule, it’s acceptable to look at the fixture list and see who’s playing whom in the coming months.  Before we do that, let’s look at the current table.

Manchester City has two games in hand, at Manchester United and home to Sunderland.  It’s a safe bet to assume they’ll beat Sunderland at home, but that match against United (scheduled for March 25^th) is going to be an interesting battle for Liverpool fans to watch.  It’s another one of those head-scratchers on who to root for.  By no means is it a safe bet, but let’s assume City will beat United and Sunderland and they will be sitting atop the league with Chelsea with only goal differential separating them.  Liverpool are the functional equivalent of being in 3^rd place at the moment four points below the leaders, but they do get to host both City and Chelsea at Anfield in April.  In order to win the league, both of those matches are must-wins for the Reds.  Even then, they would not control their own destiny.  That only will close the gap to one point on both.  Obviously this means that both Chelsea and City must drop points elsewhere.   Chelsea seems to be the frontrunner for the title when you look at their remaining fixtures.  They haven’t lost at Stamford Bridge all season and they play seven teams in the bottom 11 of the league that are still technically fighting to stave off relegation.  Of the three “elite” teams left on their schedule, they host Spurs tomorrow and then Arsenal while having to travel to Anfield in April.  It’s hard to see the Blues dropping many points with that schedule.  Manchester City, on the other hand, must travel to Liverpool, Arsenal, and Everton.  They have five cupcakes coming to the Etihad, but if the Citizens are to win this league they will most certainly do so on the road.  Arsenal is still in the hunt, and they also have games against the top two left on the schedule like Liverpool do.  While they do host City, they have to go into Stamford Bridge and do what no one else could… beat Chelsea to take all three points. They also have to travel to heated rival Tottenham and then to Everton, and it’s pretty clear that the Gunners aren’t big fans of playing games on Merseyside this season.  When it comes to their title chances, I’d bet that that Piers Morgan has a better chance at reviving his late night talk show career in America before Arsenal wins the Premiership.

Many people have been telling me that they are still worried about Liverpool keeping a spot in the top four.  Really?  They’re worried about a late season collapse that is usually reserved for Spurs.  Remember that two things have to happen for such a collapse.  Liverpool have to forget everything that Brendan Rodgers taught them to date, and another team sitting at 5^th or worse have to go on a run.  Spurs are the logical team to do so as they sit in 5^th place.  They have the most abysmal goal differential (+4) for a team with Champions League aspirations.  In order to overtake the Reds, they need to make up seven points in ten matches.  They do have that chance to beat Liverpool at Anfield in a must-win game for them.  But they also have to go to Stamford Bridge and host Arsenal as well.  While it’s not improbable to see Spurs finish in the top 4, it’s more likely that they’d do so at the expense of the Arsenal and not Liverpool.  Something tells me that their fans would be OK with that.

Everton is next in line, sitting in 6^th place with a game in hand against Crystal Palace at Goodison.  Assume they win that, and they are still eight points shy of Liverpool.  Nine points when you consider their feeble goal difference, and unlike Spurs they have already been dominated by the Reds at Anfield in this half of the season.  So they need some serious help to pass the Reds.   They have a relatively easy away fixture list remaining with a trip to 8^th place Newcastle as their toughest opponent, but they also have to win home matches against Arsenal, Manchester City, and Manchester United.  Even if they were somehow able to run the table and win their final eleven matches, that still means that Liverpool would have to drop nine points!!  Their fans have a better chance at seeing God… and I don’t mean Robbie Fowler either.  Lastly there is our old nemesis, Manchester United.  They do have a game-in-hand, but are also 14 points shy of Liverpool at the moment.  They host us next weekend, and then City as well.  After that, they can really don’t have any formidable opponents except for a trip to Everton.  The gap may already be too large for them to bridge.  I have a feeling that it will tough be to get both players and fans motivated for Manchester United matches in April and May.  To that thought, I raise my dram of single-barrel and say a toast: “#MoyesIn!!”

So I go back to the original question about who to root for in tomorrow’s Chelsea v. Tottenham match at 12:30 PM.  I think by looking down the fixture list for the rest of the season, I can say without question that it will tough for Liverpool to win the league or finish worse than 4^th.  It’s sort of like the advice I got in graduate school.  You have to work REALLY hard to get either an ‘A’ or ‘C’.  As long as the check clears, you’re pretty much guaranteed a ‘B’.  With that in mind, tomorrow afternoon I can confidently shout “Come on You Spurs!!”

Either way, enjoy the off weekend.  We had many players see international action on Wednesday and stayed healthy, Lucas and Sakho are back training full sessions at Melwood, and we played Manchester United next weekend.  Life is good!!  See you next Sunday at the pub for the match.  We need a good crowd for this one.  I’ll be making the trip from Chatham County, so no excuses will be accepted.  Don’t let us down lads!!!  YNWA!!!!